BEWARE THE COMING INTERNET EXAFLOOD - The Internet faces gridlock if operators don’t invest in access infrastructure
There have been more warnings of an impending Internet overload that may cause widespread brownouts. Analysts are urging service providers to increase capacity in access networks and manage their bandwidth more effectively.The latest report comes from analysts Nemertes Research, who warn that consumer and corporate Internet usage worldwide could outstrip network capacity in little more than two years. Nemertes said that although core network infrastructure will scale to meet user demand, access infrastructure, particularly in North America, will fall short within the next three to five years without additional investment.
The Internet has been transformed in recent years by bandwidth-intensive applications such as video, music downloads and file sharing. The rising popularity of online video sites such as YouTube have meant that Web traffic usurped peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing for the first time in four years this summer. Ellacoya reported in June 2007 that the Web represented 45% of all Internet traffic, compared to P2P at 37%. Streaming video made up 36% of Web traffic, with YouTube downloads making up 20% of it alone, or 10% of all traffic on the Internet.
All signs are that this trend is set to continue. A 2007 report on Internet traffic by Cisco says overall IP traffic will double every two years, driven largely by this hunger for video, particularly newer higher-definition content. Cisco predicts that by 2011 Internet traffic will exceed 27 exabytes per month, with business traffic making up less than 40% of it.
The next killer app could wound
“We must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face Internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on Internet services,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance. “It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new Internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming.”
Internet service providers and operators worldwide are already making the necessary network investment to cope with these increased bandwidth demands. This includes improving Internet backbone capacity, removing bottlenecks and upgrading obsolete equipment.
But investments in capacity alone are not enough. To cope with this explosion of new forms of traffic such as video, service providers also need to efficiently manage network capacity so that their subscribers receive the correct level of service. Tools are available from companies including Ellacoya, which allow service providers to identify each packet of network traffic, by subscriber and application. This gives them the ability to prioritise network traffic, enforce policies and identify and necessary infrastructure upgrades.
The Internet has been transformed in recent years by bandwidth-intensive applications such as video, music downloads and file sharing. The rising popularity of online video sites such as YouTube have meant that Web traffic usurped peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing for the first time in four years this summer. Ellacoya reported in June 2007 that the Web represented 45% of all Internet traffic, compared to P2P at 37%. Streaming video made up 36% of Web traffic, with YouTube downloads making up 20% of it alone, or 10% of all traffic on the Internet.
All signs are that this trend is set to continue. A 2007 report on Internet traffic by Cisco says overall IP traffic will double every two years, driven largely by this hunger for video, particularly newer higher-definition content. Cisco predicts that by 2011 Internet traffic will exceed 27 exabytes per month, with business traffic making up less than 40% of it.
The next killer app could wound
“We must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face Internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on Internet services,” said Larry Irving, co-chairman of the Internet Innovation Alliance. “It’s important to note that even if we make the investment necessary between now and 2010, we still might not be prepared for the next killer application or new Internet-dependent business like Google or YouTube. The Nemertes study is evidence the exaflood is coming.”
Internet service providers and operators worldwide are already making the necessary network investment to cope with these increased bandwidth demands. This includes improving Internet backbone capacity, removing bottlenecks and upgrading obsolete equipment.
But investments in capacity alone are not enough. To cope with this explosion of new forms of traffic such as video, service providers also need to efficiently manage network capacity so that their subscribers receive the correct level of service. Tools are available from companies including Ellacoya, which allow service providers to identify each packet of network traffic, by subscriber and application. This gives them the ability to prioritise network traffic, enforce policies and identify and necessary infrastructure upgrades.